Systems Theory
In the 20th century human populations expanded, cities grew larger,
information increased in density and complexity and human problems followed
ancient traditions but with increased fury and destructive ability. The Second
World War promoted unprecedented, rapid development of industrial complexity and
technological sophistication. The post-war world has been transformed by science
and technology.
Systems theory emerged in many forms as attempts to describe and
understand the complexities manifest in human organizations and the deeper more
compelling complexities revealed by the scientific study of the natural world. I
first encountered Wiener’s Cybernetics that described the theory of control
mechanisms and the importance of information and feedback, as essential
components of system regulation. Later, I read von Bertalanffy’s General Systems
Theory and learned to think in terms of the dynamics of complex systems. The
emergence of systems theories depended on multidisciplinary, integrative
approaches to the analysis of organizations of many types. The study of living
systems contributed much to the understanding of recursive, self-regulating
systems and emergent properties. In my way of thinking, the understanding of
human organizations must be based on understanding how natural systems work.
The addition of computers, systems analysis and programming to the
management of all organizations was the occasion for systems theory to flourish
and evolve into administrative and engineering tools that are now indispensible.
Any new organizational project begins with a system analysis to define system
requirements. System design follows and proceeds to the physical implementation.
Computer programming is essential to implementation, usually aided by software
engineering tools. Without sophisticated electronics and computer programming,
the modern industrial world would not exist.
Forrester is considered to be the founder of System Dynamics which focuses
on the dynamic behavior of complex systems. One insight is that when components
of a system interact emergent properties become important determinants that
cannot be anticipated by understanding the properties of each component. For
example, you can design an airplane with advanced engineering software and
define the required properties of all the components. You can test subassemblies
exhaustively to try to eliminate failure of one component but you do not know
how the plane will work until you assemble the whole thing and fly it. Even if
your prototype runs well with initial testing, you do not know if the plane will
continue to fly as well as the interaction of the parts changes their properties
over time. You have to test prototypes in many different conditions to become
confident that the plane will perform well in extended service.
The Airbus A380 was a
multinational project of the European community, a marvel of computer
software-based design, engineering and manufacturing. The A380 became the
largest passenger airliner in the world that made its first test flight in 2005
and its first commercial flight in October 2007. The test aircraft were
elaborately wired with sensors that sent voluminous data to data-logging
computers. The exhaustive testing involved five A380s, 1,364 flights lasting
4,565 hours. Assembly problems led to delivery delays; full production was
promised by 2010. On a project of this complexity that required perfect
performance from different assembly plants, you would expect some errors to show
up. A major problem occurred when different sections of the fuselage arrived at
the assembly plant in France with incompatible wiring connectors. The A380 has
530 km of wiring, 100,000 wires and 40,300 connectors.
One of the great accomplishments in the 20th century emerged from a
systems approach to monitoring planet earth. Many disciplines, government and
non-government organizations in several countries combined resources to study
the atmosphere, oceans, climates and habitats.
The Nature journal December 2007 edition focused on earth monitoring. Here
is an edited version of the editorial: “Nearly fifty years ago, Charles Keeling
and colleagues began a series of measurements of atmospheric CO2 on Mauna Loa in
Hawaii. The Mauna Loa measurements constitute the longest continuous record of
atmospheric CO2 in the world. The steady rise in CO2 that they record now forms
the accepted backdrop to today's climate science and economic and political
decision making. As well as being an important resource in itself, the Mauna Loa
record highlights the vital importance of Earth monitoring programs. Data sets
describing the behavior of the Earth’s systems are among the greatest
technological achievements of our age. In the past two decades, computer
applications have changed things yet again, introducing a capacity to bring what
was previously non-visual to the eye, and an almost infinite range of points of
view impossible to reach in any other way. The ability to change point-of-view
and depth-of-field massively and arbitrarily has created a new way of seeing.
The planetary scale has a particular significance. It links every image of the
world to the great image of Earth that contains them all. It builds on the
changes first introduced by space flight almost 50 years ago — the ability to
stand outside what was previously seen only from within. Computers are a means
of marshalling vast data sets — as users of Google Earth can testify. Geospatial
imagery becomes a great uniter of data; whether the data come from satellites
looking down, or sensors deep in the oceans, or tracking systems strapped to
walruses or gas monitors sitting above forest canopies, scientists and computer
programmers can put them all together. “
Earth monitoring has revealed the destructive aspects of expanding human
populations. An emergent bad news emphasis from monitoring sciences has
created resistance and denial from many groups protecting their vested
interests. The basic equation is that environmentally friendly business is more
expensive to build and operate.
There is another opportunity for systems theorists to understand how
populations of humans respond to problem descriptions. The goal would be to
invent new ways for humans who know what is going on to teach other
less-informed humans to persuade them to change behaviors in a
constructive fashion. Of course, there has been a proliferation of helping
agencies who go to countries in trouble, and a host of lobby groups in affluent
countries who seek changes in consumer behavior and government policy. While
there may be benefits to all this activity, a world view cannot be optimistic.
Problems proliferate faster than solutions. Climate change is underway with
uncertain outcomes. I agree with threshold ideas that predict sudden collapses
in systems that are pushed beyond their ability to adjust. Individually, humans
are alive because of their adaptive capacity and fail suddenly when their
individual adaptations fail.
