Air Pollution & Climate Change

Dramatic weather patterns in the past few years are convincing even determined sceptics that something is happening to global climates. Humans have changed  planet earth. One of our accomplishments is to extract and burn much of the fossil fuel deposits on the planet. We have increased the concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and are now observing the changes in weather patterns and climate that are a result of our actions.

Global warming means that the earth retains more of the sun's heat over time. Heat drives weather and increased heat means increased water and turbulence in the atmosphere. The consequences are determined by the distribution of this extra heat and its effect on ocean and air circulation patterns. We can accept paradoxical weather results as the extra heat makes climate systems more unstable. 

Green Developments in the media made "green" the slogan for action to limit the adverse effects of human degradations of the environment. The media often suggested that this is a relatively new consensus that there is an environmental crisis. They excused people who have ignored the effect of greenhouse gases on climates global warming over the past 30 years. Some know what is really going on out there, but most people do not know or know but deny the obvious for selfish reasons.

Green refers to the color of chlorophyll in plants. Human action destroys plants and replaces healthy ecosystems with concrete and asphalt. Another slogan that emerged was "save planet earth." Humans will not save the planet. The task for humans is to stop destroying the environments that sustain humans. If we fail, the planet will do just fine without us.

Greenhouse gases are carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide and chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs). These gases act like the glass covering a greenhouse, letting sunlight in but blocking some of the infrared radiation from the earth's surface that carries heat back into space. The gases act like a blanket wherever their concentration increases. Local concentrations increase local heat and increased differences between hotter and colder regions drives weather events into more extreme ranges. Over many years, the total amount of greenhouse gases accumulates and the average temperature of the whole planet is increases.  The planet's thermostat had been set at a pleasant  average temperature of 59 degrees (F) for the last 10 thousand years or so and is now poised to undergo a rapid change.

Weather in its simplest form is the expression of heating and cooling effects. When wind blows the roof off a house, the energy required was supplied by the sun. The energy may have been stored briefly in the water of a lake or ocean and then expressed through evaporation of the water and heating of the air. Air moves when there is a pressure gradient that is another result of heating and cooling.

The water vapor content of the atmosphere will increase in a warmer world. With more water vapor in the atmosphere and an increase in sea surface temperatures, there will be increased precipitation at times and more vigorous storms and floods.  Air and water vapor are in constant motion in the atmosphere. When patterns of distribution change, ecosystems change. Humans experience these changes as threats to their comfort and security and ultimately to their survival.

UV radiation The reduction in forest biomass and reduction of ocean plankton from heat and exposure to increased UV radiation are also concerns. Ocean phytoplankton supplies 70% of the oxygen we breathe and is a major consumer of carbon dioxide. Plankton do best in cold water. If ocean temperatures increase and other problems such as increased UV radiation from ozone holes kills phytoplankton, the problems we are predicting will accelerate. 

Complex Systems The attempt to understand complex systems has taken a quantum leap in recent years. We have gone beyond naïve linear models and now appreciate that if complex systems such as the atmosphere, the oceans, and land ecosystems change, they may become unstable and more unfriendly. Extra heat will cause more turbulence, and  weather patterns will change in unpredictable ways. Unfortunately nature changes in abrupt ways and catastrophes are natural phenomena - storms, earthquakes, avalanches all represent basic patterns of nature. We have to understand that our actions can and do lead to more catastrophes - the issues loom large when you consider recent climate changes as consequences of  human activities. Smart humans notice adverse changes and take action to minimize adverse consequences. But not all human are smart or prudent.

Differential Effects Most Important  Too much attention has been paid to estimating and predicting the average temperature increase of the atmosphere as a whole. Long-term predictions are best guesses and may be misleading. The main concern is the effect of extra heat on local climates right now. If you track anomalous and destructive weather over the whole planet, there is already substantial evidence of climate change; there may some benefits, but overall the changes look unpleasant and costly.

It is possible to imagine increasingly anomalous weather and increasing loss of life and property from greenhouse gas accumulation with small changes in the average temperature of the planet. You can increase the temperature in some areas and decrease in others and you can alternate - the differential effect will drive storms and precipitation in unusual ways. Increased adverse weather events can be best explained as an exaggerated differential effect. We built a greenhouse  with gases over much of the Pacific Ocean and put up  heat shields in other areas - smoke, other particles and water vapor. Weather extremes are commonplace and loss of life and property from adverse weather is increased.

There is no need to wait until 2050 to find out what is going to happen. Ecosystems are precariously balanced around temperature, pH, oxygen and carbon dioxide concentrations. The adaptive range for many organisms is tight and small changes can have catastrophic results  It may be that we can adapt to the changes that have occurred so far but  we may  gone to far and encounter the avalanche - dramatically increased catastrophic changes. The negative consequences of our actions may escalate beyond our control.

Living on the Edge People in California are specially adapted to the uncertainty of nature - earthquakes have always taken their toll; however when you add the toxicity of air pollution and agricultural chemicals, to soil erosion, floods, fires, and social unrest you have the formula for an unstable ecosystem that will become less habitable rather than more as the years proceed. The predictions of climate changes that might occur because of more greenhouse gases are coming true. There is cause for general concern.

Other comfortable and affluent North Americans are having trouble realizing that they are living on an ecological edge. More of them are seeing homes and businesses under water, on-fire, blown away,  crushed by heavy snow or deprived of a supportive infrastructure. We will have more water at times dumped on the land and the consequences can be severe and cumulative. At other times in other places, there will be less water and drought and winds will blow away more top soil. More of the forest biomass will be lost and erosion will continue at accelerated rates. Food-growing lands are in jeopardy; it may be difficult to sustain the level of agricultural productivity we have enjoyed thus far in this century. New health hazards will emerge - some predicable; others will be unpleasant surprises. After hurricanes and floods - things are never really the same again.

Insurance companies are either increasing rates, out of business, worried, or refusing coverage for properties at risk Hurricane Andrew was the worst weather disaster in US history causing 16.5 billion dollars in insured loses and bankrupting some smaller insurance companies. The UN panel on climate change has estimated that windstorm damage increased from $500 million in the 60's to over $11 billion in the 90's and the annual bill in the 21st century may be hundreds of billions of dollars per year. Before 1987, storms had never caused insured loses exceeding $1 billion. Hurricane Andrew destroyed over  28,000 homes. Hurricanes Jeanne, Ivan, Frances and Charley in 2004 destroyed 27,500 housing units. The Southern US was attacked by 17 major storms during the 2005 hurricane season., Hurricane Katrina did extensive damage on Sept 19 2005 to the Gulf coast of the US .Early damage cost were estimated at $200 billion, the worst natural disaster in U.S. history. Hurricane Rita soon followed on Sept 24 and became the most intense hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico but caused less damage, because it made landfall in less populated areas -- no consolation to the people in Texas and Louisiana who suffered a direct hit. Damage estimate was 10 billion.

Political action should swift and definitive, but of course, it is not. Politicians are short-term administrators who tend to be inexperienced and poorly informed. In all fairness to politicians,  some of them began their careers with high hopes of improving the world, but discovered as they matured in politics that they could only court the favor of those with vested interests, power, money and influence. The realist might say that the politician can only do what is political expedient and this usually means what is in his or her best interest in the next two to four years. The task of leading fellow Homo Sapiens from a self-destructive path requires an intelligent consensus and leadership from compassionate superheroes who think in terms of centuries, even millenia.

According to Maurice Strong who headed the 1992 Rio Earth Summit stated; "Overall we haven't made the fundamental course of change promised in Rio. The process of deterioration has continued and the forces that drive that deterioration have continued. " At that summit 153 nations signed treaties to reduce global warming, save endangered species and foster sustainable development.

Kyoto The November 1997 Kyoto meeting to determine emissions policy for the countries of the world has been a great disappointment and only confirmed our basic understanding that governments are not going to act responsibly and man-made climate problems are going to be with us for decades to come. Disruptions in ecosystems, economic systems, political systems are inevitable. The changes we are causing in the Earth's biosphere will return to harm us individually and collectively through unwelcome changes in weather, climate, food and water. The cost of these adverse changes will continue to grow and will exceed by far the cost of effective remedial action. We are all smokers who know that smoking causes cancer but we are not willing to stop smoking. Our only hope is that cancer will not catch up with us for several years.

ICC  Dec. 2007 NUSA DUA, Indonesia At the international climate conference, the world’s nations committed to negotiating a new accord by 2009 that cut in half emissions of heat-trapping gases by 2050.  While the commitment is welcome, humans remain critical of each other, disputatious and focused on self interest. The negotiations that might lead to an accord will not be a smooth path and even if an accord is achieved, compliance with its terms will not be enforceable.

Changes in human behavior must come from all people who sense danger, seek to understand their options and change spontaneously. The same issues come up in personal and public health concerns - constructive change is required. Ignorance and denial obstruct constructive change; wishful thinking and fantasy solutions become more popular. Self-interest and greed dominate the political process. Mother earth shudders and complains...looks like we are staying on the edge.

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