Living on the Edge
Persisting dangers posed by the human tendency to injure and kill other
humans can be overwhelmed by nature’s tendency to destroy and kill. Humans die
from planetary events over which they have little or no control. Earthquakes are
a constant expression of tectonic plates in motion. There are regular events
such as volcanic eruptions, fires, storms and hurricanes. Humans insist on living in areas that have frequent
earthquakes or extreme weather events and more less accept the risk. You could
argue that a prudent person would not live in a high risk zone or would build a
home that could withstand any adversity that might arrive one day. Preparations
can be made to warn against or to mitigate the consequences of some events, but
overall, risk taking is a fatalistic resignation to the greater forces of
nature.
Climate Change
Humans are used to living on the edge and have a tendency to deny their own
involvement in causing calamities. Despite much information to the contrary, too
many humans pretend that unusual weather events are "Acts of God" and that
things will return to normal next year. But will they? And what is normal?
The planet's thermostat had been set at a pleasant average temperature of 59
degrees (F) for the last 10 thousand years or so and is now undergoing a rapid
change. Global warming means that the earth retains more of the sun's heat over
time. The warming effect of greenhouse gases is reduced by particle pollution
and clouds that block incoming infrared radiation. Without particle pollution,
ice crystals and water vapor in the atmosphere, global warming would be more
rapid.
Global atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous
oxide have increased markedly as a result of human activities since 1750 and now
far exceed pre-industrial values over the past 650,000 years. Most of the
observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century
is likely due to the observed increase in human greenhouse gas concentrations.
Anthropogenic warming and sea level rise would continue for centuries due to the
timescales associated with climate processes and feedbacks, even if greenhouse
gas concentrations were to be stabilized soon, although the likely amount of
temperature and sea level rise varies greatly depending on the fossil intensity
of human activity during the next century .The probability that this is caused
by natural climatic processes alone is less than 5%.
World temperatures could rise by between 1.1 and 6.4 °C (2.0 and 11.5 °F)
during the 21st century:
Sea levels will probably rise by 18 to 59 cm (7.08 to 23.22 in)
There will be more frequent warm
spells, heat waves and heavy rainfall.
Increases in droughts, fires, tropical cyclones and extreme high tides will
continue to threaten most countries.
The the incidence and severity of adverse effect of climate change depends on where you live. Low lying
coastal areas, already vulnerable to ocean storms, tsunamis and floods will
become uninhabitable with increasing sea levels. The vulnerable zone includes
large coastal cities. In the US, New Orleans was the first to go. New York,
Miami, Boston and San Francisco are vulnerable cities. More expansive high risk
zones exist around flood prone rivers that overflow when rain storms dump excess
water on land that has been stripped of protective vegetation. Increased rates
of rainfall that overwhelm river capacities are observed in warming climate
zones.
Much attention has been paid to estimating and predicting the average
temperature increase of the atmosphere as a whole. Long-term predictions are
best guesses and may be misleading. Local heating effects are observable as wind
and rain -- more heat produces more extreme weather events. Heat drives weather
and increased heat means increased turbulence in the atmosphere. The
consequences vary with the distribution of this extra heat and its effect on
ocean and air circulation patterns. We can accept paradoxical weather results as
the extra heat makes weather systems more turbulent and changes air and water
circulation patterns. The main concern should be the effect of heat retention on
local climates right now.
It is possible to imagine increasingly anomalous weather and increasing
loss of life and property from greenhouse gas accumulation with little or no
change in the average temperature of the planet, although, we do expect slow
progressive increase in average temperatures. You can increase the temperature
in some areas and decrease in others and you can alternate - the differential
effect will drive storms and precipitation in unusual ways. By the end of 1998,
we knew that weather extremes were becoming commonplace and loss of life and
property from adverse weather increased.
These more destructive weather events promise to continue. Insurance
companies are increasing rates, limiting coverage or going out of business.
Hurricane Andrew was the first of the worst weather disasters in US history that
caused 16.5 billion dollars in insured loses, bankrupting smaller insurance
companies. The UN panel on climate change estimated that windstorm damage
increased from $500 million in the 60's to over $11 billion in the 90's and the
annual bill in the 21st century may be hundreds of billions of dollars per year.
Before 1987, storms had never caused insured loses exceeding $1 billion; there
have been a succession of $100 billion-plus disasters since. Hurricane Katrina
that destroyed New Orleans in 2005 killed 1300 people, left one million homeless
with direct costs estimated at $125 billion. The costly destruction continues
worldwide.
The release of the 2007 report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC) is a milestone that confirms a scientific consensus that we have a
problem of catastrophic proportions and mandates the necessity of achieving a
political consensus that that will lead to real and effective action in all the
countries on planet earth. The climate talks in Copenhagen in December 2009
involved 200 nations who failed to achieve enforceable agreements to reduce
carbon emissions. If you were an optimist you might value the Accord that was
achieved, a five-page document that represented another tentative step toward
global action to reduce atmospheric pollution and climate change. A realist
would restate our understanding of human nature – that local interests always
trump global concerns and local interests are divergent and divisive. US
President Obama stated: “I think that people are justified in being disappointed
about the outcome in Copenhagen. The science says that we’ve got to
significantly reduce emissions over the next 40 years. There’s nothing in the
Copenhagen agreement that ensures that will happen.”
There is no need to wait until 2050 to find out what is going to happen.
Political action should swift and definitive, but of course, it is not. The task
of leading fellow humans from a self-destructive path requires intelligent and
compassionate superheroes. In Dec. 2007, Al Gore shared a Nobel Prize with the
IPCC, a United Nations agency. In his acceptance speech, Gore, made another
passionate plea of recognition of the climate crisis and the need for
cooperative action across the planet. Gore warned that “we, the human species,
are confronting a planetary emergency — a threat to the survival of our
civilization that is gathering ominous and destructive potential: we have the
ability to solve this crisis and avoid the worst of its consequences, if we act
boldly, decisively and quickly.”
One correction is that humans and other animals are in peril, not the
planet. Planet Earth is a work in progress that changes continuously. No
environment has been stable over the stretch of millions of years and climates
change without human help. The problem today is that human activities have
changed the environment quickly and that current arrangements to supply clean
air, good food and clean water are not sustainable.
Disruptions in ecosystems, economic systems, political systems are
inevitable. Changes in human behavior must come from all people who sense
danger, seek to understand their options and change spontaneously. The same
issues come up in personal and public health concerns - constructive change is
required.
Ignorance and denial obstruct constructive change; wishful thinking and
fantasy solutions become more popular. Self-interest and greed dominate the
political process.
